Matt Moulds spends his days speaking with civil contractors across the Upper North Island, helping businesses secure the skilled people they need to deliver infrastructure projects. But recruitment isn't his only lens on the market. 

With a background in financial advising, Matt closely follows the economic indicators influencing business confidence, investment and project activity. Combined with his day-to-day conversations across the civil sector, it gives him a unique perspective on where the market is heading. 

Right now, both the data and the conversations he is having point towards cautious optimism. 

Confidence is building from both sides 

Recent economic indicators suggest New Zealand's economy is continuing to move in the right direction. The latest manufacturing PMI eased to 54.3 in July, down from June's exceptionally strong reading of 60.1, but remains firmly in expansion territory. 

For Matt, it is a reminder that a cooling market isn't always a weakening market.

"People often focus on whether a number is up or down, but context matters," says Matt. "A reading of 54.3 still represents expansion and is above the long-term average. I’m not saying everything is suddenly booming, but there are definitely more positive signals starting to appear. 

As someone who follows both financial markets and workforce trends, Matt sees confidence as one of the biggest drivers of investment and hiring activity.

"When businesses feel more certain about what the future holds, they start planning ahead. That's when projects move from discussion to delivery, and recruitment activity follows." 

Global signals are also providing encouragement 

Matt's optimism isn’t driven solely by local market activity. He also keeps a close eye on international economic trends and the factors influencing business confidence globally.

Recent commentary around US monetary policy, bond markets and the direction of the US dollar could create more favourable conditions for economies such as New Zealand over the next 12 to 18 months. 

"I keep a close eye on what’s happening globally because those conditions eventually flow through to New Zealand,” says Matt. “If we continue to see a softer US dollar and more supportive global financial conditions, that could help take some pressure off imported inflation and give the RBNZ a bit more breathing room on rates. For businesses here, a more supportive interest rate environment can ultimately help confidence, investment and project activity." 

Matt Moulds is a Recruitment Consultant in Stellar Recruitment's Civil Trades team, based in Auckland. If you're hiring for civil or infrastructure roles across the Upper North Island, or looking for your next opportunity in the sector, get in touch with Matt and the Civil Trades team.